Embraer Publishes Commercial Aviation Global Market Outlook

Embraer has published Market Outlook 2025, its annual 20-year forecast for commercial aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat category. The report was released in advance of the Paris Air Show next week.

Market Outlook 2025 estimates 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops through 2044. It also presents analyses of global influences and trends in seven world regions that impact the demand for new aircraft. Because of its growing prominence in commercial aviation, statistics for China are detailed separately in this year’s Market Outlook for the first time.

The document also analyzes demand for cargo aircraft, including a forecast for passenger-to-freighter conversions.

The overall forecast for the number of new sub-150-seat aircraft remains almost unchanged from Embraer’s previous estimate. Arjan Meijer, Embraer President and CEO of Commercial Aviation, attributes the consistency of the estimate to the longevity of social, supply chain, and geopolitical trends Embraer identified during the pandemic.

“Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long lasting. In our first post-pandemic Market Outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalization to a more polarized geopolitical outlook. Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, the demand for regional access will continue to grow. We believe mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth. They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals.”

Highlights of the 20-Year Commercial Market Outlook – By the Numbers

World passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) is forecast to grow 3.9% annually through 2044. China will lead among seven global regions.

Annual RPK regional growth rate – ranked

5.7%: China

4.7%: Latin America

4.4%: Africa

4.4%: Middle East

4.1%: Asia Pacific

3.1%: Europe & CIS

2.4%: North America

RPK share by the end of 2044

39%: Asia Pacific

37%: Europe + North America

Global demand for new aircraft up to 150 seats

Total: 10,500

Jets: 8,720

Turboprops: 1,780

Market value of all new aircraft

USD 680 billion

Jet deliveries - 8,720 (% share) – by region 

North America: 2,680 (30.7%)

Europe & CIS: 1,990 (22.8%)

China: 1,500 (17.2%)

Asia Pacific: 1,050 (12.1%)

Latin America: 770 (8.8%)

Africa: 380 (4.4%)

Middle East: 350 (4.0%)

Turboprop deliveries - 1,780 (% share) – by region

Asia Pacific: 640 (36.0%)

North America: 280 (15.7%)

Europe & CIS: 260 (14.6%)

Africa: 220 (12.4%)

China: 200 (11.2%)

Latin America: 160 (9.0%)

Middle East: 20 (1.1%)

Download the complete Embraer 2025 Market Outlook here.